List: Biggest DOW Dives Since 1929

List of Biggest One-Day DOW Plunges Since 1929
Since we’re heading into the last, critical, “black” days of the “blackest” month for the stock market I thought now’s a good time for a little history.

Note that 3 of the 16 biggest one-day drops have happened in the last 30 days.

The DOW was at 10,831.07 on October 1, 2008. So far this month it’s dropped 21.5%.

I don’t think it’s done dropping yet. Although I expect the DOW to see-saw a bit I’m holding firm to my long-term prediction from February  (when the DOW was at 12,240) that we’ll see 5,711. Of course, it’ll continue to drop well below that point.

◊◊◊◊ Now: Gold @ $733.70, Silver @ $9.72, USDX @ 85.56 ◊◊◊◊
◊◊◊◊ Now: DJIA 8,519.21

“Dangerous Month to Speculate in Stocks”

◊◊◊◊ Now: Gold @ $729.60, Silver @ $9.57, USDX @ 85.54 ◊◊◊◊
◊◊◊◊ Now: DJIA 8,519.21

Warning: COMEX May Default on December Gold

This warning comes from someone I’ve respected since I got involved in the silver/gold story in 2005, John Embry. He’s the senior analyst for Sprott Asset Management in Canada and member of the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee.

If COMEX is unable to deliver physical gold and declares a “force majeure” all outstanding gold contracts will be invalidated. Both the paper gold and real gold price will blast off to Saturn.

UPDATE 11/12/2008: When will we know if Comex runs out of gold and/or silver? I’ve looked up the important dates regarding the December Comex Gold Futures [link]:

Nov. 20   Comex December gold options expire
Nov. 20   Comex December silver options expire

Nov. 24   Comex December miNY gold futures last trading day
Nov. 24   Comex December miNY silver futures last trading day

Nov. 28   Comex December gold futures first notice day
**1st day to take delivery**
Nov. 28   Comex December silver futures first notice day
**1st day to take delivery**

Dec. 29   Comex December gold futures last trading day
**Last day to take delivery**
Dec. 29   Comex December silver futures last trading day
**Last day to take delivery**

If December Gold or December Silver will fail to deliver it should happen between Nov 28 and Dec 29.

Two years ago, on August 16, 2006, the London Metals Exchange defaulted on its nickel contracts [link]. Note the date: the 16th of the month, almost exactly halfway between the First Notice Day and the Last Trading Day. I have no idea if gold/silver would play out the same way.

The bad news: if you’re buying gold or silver futures with the expectation of taking delivery here’s what happened when LME defaulted on its nickel contracts: they retroactively changed all contracts so that the shorts did NOT have to provide physical nickel to the longs. The contracts were settled for cash with a penalty that averaged a mere 10% of the spot price.

I can imagine the corrupt Comex stiffing the gold/silver longs the same way, citing concerns about “maintaining orderly trading.” Ouch!

UPDATE 11/21/2008: David Morgan, editor of The Silver Investor, is holding a “webinar” titled “How to Take Delivery of Silver”. Time: mon., Nov 24, 2008 starting at 12:00 EST, 11:00 CST or 9:00 PST. [link]

How close is COMEX to going bust? Answer: Vaporize COMEX CountDOWN See also:

• Gold: Is This It, NOW?
• Attack of COMEX Gold & Silver
• How 2 Track COMEX Deliveries
• Sinclair Sez “Help Me Bust Comex”
• This Guy Plans 2 Kill “Paper” Silver