Vaporize COMEX 2008-12-15

Last update: Mon 12/15/2008, 3:45 pm CST.

Gold: 44.9% depleted. Deliveries requested today: 11,300 oz.
Silver: 38.2% depleted. Deliveries requested today: 35,000 oz.

Link to all Vaporize COMEX posts:
Vaporize COMEX Graphs





COMEX trades hundreds of times more gold & silver than they actually possess. If enough investors demand delivery of PHYSICAL gold & silver COMEX stockpiles will be depleted. If COMEX runs out, the ensuing rush to grab physical metal to settle contract obligations *could* be the spark that ignites the long-awaited precious metals wildfire.

COMEX warehouses contain both “registered” and “eligible” metals. The “registered” metals are available for physical delivery. The “eligible” metals are not ready for delivery until they become “registered.” Although this pool of “eligible” metals is stored at COMEX warehouses there is no obligation to “register” these metals for subsequent physical deliveries.

The graph shows:
1) the cumulative ounces of metal delivery requests this month,
2) the ounces of “registered” metal available for delivery,
The percentage shown is based on the cumulative physical metal delivery requests for the month against the “registered” amount of metal in COMEX.
“Eligible” metal inventories are not shown as they do not have a direct bearing on the inventory depletion ratio.

[1] COMEX precious metals warehouse stocks:
[2] COMEX precious metals daily delivery requests:

More info:
Gold: Is This It, NOW?
Attack of COMEX Gold & Silver
How 2 Track COMEX Deliveries
Sinclair Sez “Help Me Bust Comex”
This Guy Plans 2 Kill “Paper” Silver
COMEX: Taking Delizery Is EZ


16 Responses

  1. Was there a time during the history of COMEX that the depletion levels were similar to today’s values .. i.e. ~40-50% ??

  2. 23,200 ounces of Gold (232 contracts) on today’s delivery report; Open Interest stands at 831 contracts as of 10 minutes ago for the Dec ’08 contract.

    Major resistance at $842.50 on the Feb ’09 contract; once we CLOSE above that level, next major resistance isn’t until $947.50, then again at $1,052.50; after that…up, up, and away…

  3. yes, while it is true that depleting comex inventories as Dr. Fekete says, are symptoms of the backwardation of gold, this site goes beyond the theoretical economics, and allows us to note the unfolding of the event, and to hopefully navigate the collapse accordingly.
    Basically backwardation is saying, is that a bar in the hand, is worth two in the comex vault.

  4. I have read ~1 – 10% normally take physical delivery from the COMEX, but I do not have the source for this figure. As I understand it is generally much lower than what we are seeing in the Dec 08 contract.

    The amount of gold delivered or registered does not matter so much. The primary figure to watch is the gold basis. The diminishing registered inventories and the increasing delivery requests are a SYMPTOM of the negative basis (spot above near future price at any given time value (t)). The persistent negative basis, which began on Dec 2, 2008 and continues as of close today is an economic vote of ‘no confidence’ in the COMEX and ultimately in a fiat money system based on legal tender, were debt is only coercively liquidated via irredeemable promises to pay.

    The outcome (if the basis does not reverse) will be a ‘force majeure’ in the Dec 08 or Feb 09 contract, where contracts will be settled in cash, not gold. This will be the ultimate signal of destruction of Bretton Woods II.

    Please see Dr. Antal Fekete’s work for further reference, all of these original thoughts come from him, not myself.

  5. anyone know what percentage of comex gold is delivered in an average delivery month?

  6. “When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
    But declining inventory, and the deadline draws near…”

    It is nice to see the registered inventory line start to move. I was beginning to wonder if COMEX was backed by an ocean of reserves. Things may get interesting as we see how many of those registered and eligible ounces are really available for delivery (mwa ha ha ha ha ha).

    Anyway, I really don’t expect any fireworks this year but given the rampant fraud lately perhaps the cupboard really is bare.

  7. Mish says that the United States is not Zimbabwe. Who said it was? However, the United States dollar and the Zimbabwe dollar are no different in principle, if not yet in practice. They are both an irredeemable currency. Managers of the U.S. dollar are just making the first tentative steps to join the managers of the Zimbabwe dollar in Dante’s Inferno. The eighth of the nine circles in Hell is reserved for perpetrators of fraud and false pretenses, among others, the managers of irredeemable currencies. As Dante describes it, their punishment is to be kept submerged in a cesspit full of excrement. Honestly, they don’t deserve to be washed clean by Mish or anybody else.

    Rumors that there may be a failure of delivery in the December contract turned out to be surprisingly accurate. Mish is premature in doubting that such a failure is in the cards. Backwardation-deniers must not jump the gun. A titanic struggle is taking place right now, out of earshot and out of sight: the bull fight at Comex. In this bull ring it is not always the toreador who kills the bull. Sometimes the bull kills the toreador. The fight takes place on weekdays from 8.15 a.m. to 3 p.m. EST. While it is not carried on TV, it is carried by the wire services. The last fight is scheduled on December 31 — unless the toreador resigns beforehand and the bulls win by default.

  8. I also like the new site as well

  9. Sh*t That should be 12/15 not 10/15, sorry

  10. Are you sure?

    “My methodology is to calculate the basis as the difference between the asked price for the December futures and the bid price for spot gold. The logic behind this is that if you wanted to transfer your costs of carrying gold to the futures market, then you would have to sell physical at the bid price of spot gold and buy it back at the asked price of the December futures.”

    -Dr Antal Fekete

  11. That should be London Gold Fix, not spot. (one message up).

  12. If we use London Spot, then gold is $10 chepaer now than December delivery. Is this no a valid perspective?

    BTW: The site is now much easier on the eyes. Thumbs up on the change!

  13. Both the December 08 and Feb 09 contract months remain in backwardation (negative basis). This is calculated by the difference between the spot bid and ask futures price. I have used the “Most Recent Settle”, or contract closing price.

    Spot: $836.90
    Dec 08 MRS: $835.40
    Feb 09 MRS: $836.50

    Negative basis continues.

  14. Something is wrong with the embedded image links to the charts…

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