Week of Jan 5, 2009

Meltdown Poll
Inauguration Bounce or the Real Deal? Poll: When Will Markets Hit Bottom?

Vaporize COMEX
button-vaporize-comex-white-backCOMEX did not “go bust” last month.
The new  Chart: COMEX Gold Inventory I posted shows it was not even close. Let me be the first to call myself an idiot… [link]
Also see the latest silver inventory levels at Chart: COMEX Silver Inventory.

What U Need 2 Know
Remember the “Twin Quakes” forecast for the time period between Dec 10 and Jan 15 [4Cast: Quakes Within Weeks]? The WebBot guys had a bit of a track record going on previous predictions BUT no big quakes yet. Their most recent prediction (late Nov) stated they were most likely to occur mid-December, although their “official” window from Aug 2008 said as late as Jan 15, 2009.

Sure looks like they missed this one, as the largest “twin quakes” were in China. Although at the correct latitude, they didn’t manage to get above 4-point-something. A miss. Which could be a good thing in more than just the obvious meaning: if this prediction would have been right their next one called for increasingly dire economic and military news for the next 5 months culminating in “The Summer from Hell” afterward.

Update: a reader pointed out these twin quakes of magnitude 7.6 and 7.5 in Indonesia over the weekend. [link] The timing and magnitude seem to fit, but the WebBot Guys missed the latitude by 32 degrees, and there were no widespread social impacts. Close, but I reckon I’ll keep the cigar in my pocket for now…

They don’t claim to be perfect*, so they could still be right on some of their predictions, but they just dropped a notch in my book. I’ll keep an eye on things for you!

 Scott
*I respect them for going on national radio and calling the quake prediction “our ‘Worst Prediction of 2008’.”

– 2009: Worst Still Ahead **new**
Best Way 2 Control the Masses
We’re a Republic, NOT a Democracy
– Uncle Sam’s Gold Grab   
Cap’n! R Shields R Down! 
Something of Historic Proportions Is Happening 
Deflation Xforming to Inflation Soon
Safety Deposit Boxes Confiscated 
Shadow Powers Plan for 2011 
Sober Prediction for Nov. 2009 
– Quit DOW Now! **if U only read 1 thing on this site…**
 
>> How to Rate Your Bank’s Safety <<
How Does Your Broker Rate?
History of the Meltdown… (on-going)

Remember what’s in store for us: What’s Coming R Way

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38 Responses

  1. Stagflation out of the media

    How is it possible that the US$ is in deflation unless TPTB needs an excuse to print more fiat paper. Back in the day when the greenback was grounded with gold Joe the plumber could go to the bank with a buck in hand and demand his gold. That dollar was redeemed for wealth and taken out of circulation. That’s how deflation works, less paper in circulation in relation to items of value the price goes down. As you read this text the Fed printing presses are going full force that’s inflation more paper. What we are seeing today is the symptoms of deflation but not the disease. Selling stock makes the market go down; shorting the COMEX the price of gold goes down. Popping the credit bubble the price of homes goes down. We all know that commerce has halted on a global level and the paper is being injected into the system at an unprecedented pace. The pressure is building and the dam is gona brake! What we are witnessing is the crumbling of the fiat based monetary system and the next step is the big rip-off. So don’t let the spin doctors fake you out its stagflation that makes the price go down and we don’t need more paper the powers that be do. Got God Guns Grub and Gold?

  2. Tulving has gold for $850 per ounce right now..Go buy some & sell it on Feebay

  3. Physical gold & silver at all the dealers for less than 5% over spot.ND & Vader.You guys were totally wrong on comex meltdown.

    Silver eagles are $13 everywhere now..

  4. 1% delivery on comex..That is so funny.You guys were idiots

  5. Looks like this gold market is rigged for the worse. I’m out as soon as I break even. Never again. One hoss too many in Washington DC.

  6. I think it may not be polite not to say hello to everyone, so Hi.
    I’m a carpenter on Long Island and with the way the housing market is I have a lot of time on my hands. I like to read as many gold forums as I can and let me let you know there’s quite a few. Most if not all of the other sites are selling something and may not be as out spoken as it is here. I’ve learned a little and try to keep an open mind. I must hand it to Scott this site is unique, thanks Scott. I just want to let you know that I heard it first here, that is the COMEX may bust and backwardation and most recent Warehouse Delivery Receipts. I didn’t think it was possible but TPTB will change the rules as they see fit. It’s just a matter of time before they start giving out WDRs for the 100oz contracts. Well paper is for wiping and I live in the physical world.

  7. Everything down? Maybe someone needs to liquidate to drum up cash.
    Could be Bank of America, they just backed out of a deal with Chinas central bank!

    Oh by the way I love the site Scott

  8. Yup,

    I agree, KD. It does look like somebody big is “sick”. TIme will tell.

    My local coin dealers (Dallas Metro) are all charging from $980-$1,100 for 1 ounce gold eagles, PLUS sales tax.

    Interesting times we’re living in.

  9. By the way, american gold eagles (1 oz.) are going for $1,020 this afternoon on ebay; this tells me the futures price of gold is down for one reason only: someone BIG needs to raise cash NOW.

    Wonder who it is…

  10. Let’s see….

    Today, oil is down, the USD is down, Treasuries (bonds & bills) are down, gold is down…everything is down, down, down. Does anyone remember what happened the last time EVERYTHING DENOMINATED IN THE USD was down at the same time?

    Answer: Lehman went bye bye. Looks to me like a big hedgie or bank went the way of the DoDo-Bird today, as there is some MASSIVE raising of cash going on this afternoon. I could be wrong, but it’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

    Any other guesses or opinions out there?

  11. from: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

    Is the Comex Doing Fractional Reserve Delivery of Gold?

    An acquaintance who works for a small precious metals fund sent this to us today, asking if we had ever heard of anything like it.

    The short answer is no, but this is not a strong area of specific expertise, and we never attribute to a bad intent what we can attribute to sheer incompetency, especially when dealing with large organizations.

    When one is promised specific bars with specific serial numbers of a specific size and weight one week, and they are not available the next week when you confirm that you wish to receive them, that brings up the same kind of red flags that have been so notoriously ignored by regulatory agencies in other recent cases. Of course the Comex is no Bernie Madoff.

    But nevertheless it does bring into question the integrity of the Comex records and their contracts, and the condition of their audits and inventories. We would have a fit if someone did this to us after an online auction or a personal purchase transaction. Why should the Comex be allowed to sell what it does not have, and then dictate new terms after the fact?

    And it does put a fresh emphasis on the old adage, “When in doubt, take it out.”

    We accumulated 3 emini gold contracts on Comex for December delivery and we had been given serial numbers and weights last week for the 3 bars we were to receive.

    Today we are informed that Comex is invoking a rule in which they can deny delivery of individual mini bars (roughly 33 ounces) and issue you only a Warehouse Delivery Receipt (WDR) against your mini-contract unless you have 3 WDR’s, and then they’ll issue you a 100 oz. bar.

    Otherwise, if you have only 1 or 2 mini-contracts, you only own a WDR, which you sell by shorting a mini against it. If you own a WDR for a 100 oz., they encourage you to safekeep the gold at the Comex and hold a vault receipt.

    CLEARLY, the Comex has run out of the bars that were being delivered to holders of emini contracts. Our back-office guy told us that he’s been doing Comex deliveries for 30 years and he’s never seen anything like this, and he’s never heard of this rule on the mini contract. (update: its in the contract if you read it – Jesse)
    Fortunately we have 3 WDR’s and we will be getting delivery of a 100 oz. Comex gold bar.

    But this whole episode brings into the question the validity of the Comex gold inventory. More importantly, the Comex is now going to issue WDR’s, which are paper.

    Are they becoming a “fractional” reserve depository, where they can issue several WDR’s against the same bar of gold, knowing that some of those people will opt to keep storage on Comex and never require actual physical delivery?”

  12. A Whopper from Burger King will be worth more than the price of CME stock if this keeps up. CME is going down. No transparency, the stock should be halted.

  13. Is this not proof there is no gold available immediately in the warehouse?

    This should be on CNBC all day tomorrow.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/01/is-comex-doing-fractional-reserve.html

  14. RichW,

    I’m betting on a price of $1,000+ by Friday’s close, this week, with full-blown backwardation to boot…we shall see…

  15. KD, I to like cornflakes. Kitco is showing the spot price of Gold slightly declining in the last few hours to a price of USD 859.70. I neglected to say it out load in my last post, but something smells fishy late in the day today. I really really wonder what’s going to happen tomorrow! Until tomorrow. Good night.

  16. and cornflakes

  17. I like money…

  18. hello?

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