Shameless Self-Promotion

2009-01-08-half-million-hitsThanks to increasing readership this blog has topped the half-million hit mark.

Along the way we’ve logged 1,441 comments.

The most popular posts in the last year have been:
1) Vaporize COMEX countDOWN
2) Warning: COMEX May Default on December Gold
3) How 2 Track COMEX Deliveries
4) Sinclair Sez “Help Me Bust Comex”
5) Gold: Is This It, NOW?
6) Vaporize COMEX 2008-12-19
7) This Guy Plans 2 Kill “Paper” Silver
8) My Predictions from Feb 2008
9) Vaporize COMEX 2008-12-29
10) Safety Deposit Boxes Confiscated

Meltdown2011 has been in the WordPress Top 100 posts and blogs a handful of times, and it’s been linked to from:
– David Morgan’s Silver-Investor.com site,
lemetropolecafe.com,
WhatReallyHappened.com
Silver Bear Cafe,
SteveQuayle.com,
SurvivalBlog.com,
GoldSeek.com,
– Jim Puplava’s FinancialSense.com site,
– Jason Hommel’s SilverStockReport.com site.

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2009: Worst Still Ahead

Summarized from Nouriel Roubini on Bloomberg.com

nouriel roubini2008 In Review
The global financial system in 2008 experienced its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Major financial institutions went bust. Others were bought up on the cheap or survived only after major bailouts. Global stock markets fell by more than 50 percent from their 2007 peaks. Interest-rate spreads spiked. A severe liquidity and credit crunch appeared. Many emerging-market economies on the verge of a crisis had to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.

The global financial system literally went into a cardiac arrest after the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapse and a meltdown was barely avoided through very aggressive policy responses.

So what lies ahead in 2009?
Is the worst behind us or ahead of us? Unfortunately, the worst is ahead of us. The entire global economy will contract in a severe and protracted U-shaped global recession that started a year ago. The U.S. will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009. Even in 2010 the economic recovery may be so weak — 1 percent growth or so — that it will feel terrible even if the recession is technically over.

Shadow Banks
We now are seeing the demise of the shadow banking system, the complex of non-bank financial institutions that looked like banks as they borrowed short term and in liquid ways, leveraged a lot, and invested in longer term and illiquid ways. As a result, the biggest asset and credit bubble in financial history is going bust, with overall credit losses likely to be more than $2 trillion.

Meltdown Averted
While the odds of a systemic financial meltdown have been reduced by the actions of the Group of Seven and other economies, severe vulnerabilities remain.

The credit crunch will persist and spread beyond mortgages. Deleveraging will continue, as thousands of hedge funds — many of which will go bust — and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing price declines and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business.

Painful Year Ahead
So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to a third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover — however slowly –in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

Humor: Take the Wheel, Please

bet-u-cant-wait-to-take-the-wheel

Chart: COMEX Silver Inventory

button-vaporize-comex-white-backNOTE: Latest COMEX Silver Inventory chart is to the right, in the sidebar.

For what it’s worth, here’s a chart showing COMEX Silver Inventories since the end on November, 2008. (If you can’t see it click the title of the post above.)

comex-silver-inventory-2009-01-07

Notice the severity of depletion is nothing close to what I thought had been occurring in my earlier “Vaporize COMEX” charts, even though it is significantly better than the chart I published for gold yesterday.

On Nov 28, first notce day for Dec silver deliveries, COMEX reported 80,749,083 “registered” ounces. On Dec 31, the day after final notice day, COMEX reported 66,998,734 “registered” ounces. This is an inventory depletion of 17.0%, not the 46.5% I had shown in my “final” December chart.

All the other frustrating comments I made about the gold chart apply to the silver one as well. (Please read them on Chart: COMEX Gold Inventory before calling me an idiot.)

Please note the reversal of the “Eligible” and “Registered” areas vs the gold chart. Seem silver has a smaller (though growing) pool of “eligible” inventory.

Could this be a sign some of the metal is being set aside for possible delivery outside of COMEX? I honestly don’t know.