Chart: COMEX Silver Inventory

button-vaporize-comex-white-backNOTE: Latest COMEX Silver Inventory chart is to the right, in the sidebar.

For what it’s worth, here’s a chart showing COMEX Silver Inventories since the end on November, 2008. (If you can’t see it click the title of the post above.)

comex-silver-inventory-2009-01-07

Notice the severity of depletion is nothing close to what I thought had been occurring in my earlier “Vaporize COMEX” charts, even though it is significantly better than the chart I published for gold yesterday.

On Nov 28, first notce day for Dec silver deliveries, COMEX reported 80,749,083 “registered” ounces. On Dec 31, the day after final notice day, COMEX reported 66,998,734 “registered” ounces. This is an inventory depletion of 17.0%, not the 46.5% I had shown in my “final” December chart.

All the other frustrating comments I made about the gold chart apply to the silver one as well. (Please read them on Chart: COMEX Gold Inventory before calling me an idiot.)

Please note the reversal of the “Eligible” and “Registered” areas vs the gold chart. Seem silver has a smaller (though growing) pool of “eligible” inventory.

Could this be a sign some of the metal is being set aside for possible delivery outside of COMEX? I honestly don’t know.

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18 Responses

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  2. Amazing going back and reading this. Good thing we’ve been loading up on silver. I’ve been picking up the Stacker bars from http://www.scottsdalesilver.com my favorite bars out there after buying from many places over the past 4 years. Congrats all, and good luck in this mess of an economic situation.

  3. can u supply silver inventary before 7.30pm per week

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  5. Yo Terry, I agree with you, and I’ve been saying the same thing in december. No one seems to want to listen. We should focus one either gold or silver, preferably silver. Silver is cheaper and more rare than gold, and to bust it would require a lot less money. Also, looking at the gold-silver ratio, gold is way over-valued. Let’s keep repeating the message until some uber-rich person sees the message and sees a huge “BUY” signal. The spot price is bogus. They can rig it with all the paper shorts they want to print because they can print paper out of thin air, but at some point, the actual physical will disappear. “If you don’t hold it, you don’t have it!”

  6. Hey…come back and keep updating…look at the press that gold has gotten in the first half of Feb as now the mainstream media can no longer ignore it’s performance and ‘mainstream’ investors/money managers tout its merits in the paper and on Bloomberg (i never watch CNBC…any coverage there?).

    Gold is going to catch a ‘buzz’ sometime this year, I’m convinced. It’ll get above $1,000 & stay there, and then bullish momentum will grow and a buzz in the general public will develop.

    But FYI, silver has been the better performer in 2009 and will likely remain so…though if you want to talk about ‘under-the-radar’ in terms of public knowledge, silver is still buried in a grave as far as the masses are concerned.

  7. Scott,

    March is another big month for Comex silver. Are you planning to do a similar analysis for the March silver futures?

  8. Scott, we were trying to call you a fool all the time (not an idiot–go easy on yourself!) ;)

    See: https://meltdown2011.wordpress.com/2008/11/29/vaporize-comex-countdown/#comments

    All of the people who were cheering you on (as opposed to the 10 or so who weren’t) need to add knowledge to their suspicion to be able to change something in the world.

    I wrote this on Dec 3rd, but you never listened (or read?) it, I suppose:

    Ryan, on December 3rd, 2008 at 8:59 am Said:
    These numbers are nonsense. Go here: http://www.nymex.com/warehouse.aspx

    Only 200 oz. left the warehouses on Dec 2, not 31,300 oz.

    There are 2.9 million ounces registered sitting in the warehouses right now, 0% of which are depleted (that is why they are registered). Another 5.5 M eligible. It would take 29K contracts (there are only 11K outstanding for December) to take delivery to “break” the Comex registered supply–and that is only the registered.

    Add the eligible to this and the total is 6 billion dollars in gold… (8.510.346 oz x $780 per oz).

    If you remove bars from the Comex, however, you cannot trade them back in without re-assaying and remelting. You can’t sell 400 oz. to very many people on the street–how would they know the bar is real? Therefore, taking delivery is only a good idea if you want to melt the bars down to make coins, etc.

    However, even if you make the coins, since they are your coins and not Philharmonics or Eagles or etc, no one really knows with their metal content is.

    In other words, for gold:

    1. It would take minimum $2 billion and probably more like 4 or 5 to “break” the Comex gold market.

    2. The positions are not large enough to do it for December.

    3. The only people who can really take delivery are mints and jewlers, who neither have the capital nor the interest in breaking the market to do so. Example: the US Mint is only capable of minting about 115K 1 oz. gold coins per month. For them to mint millions of oz of coins would take years. So they aren’t taking more than 130K oz delivery per month.

    4. Normal people can’t take delivery because the bars become illiquid (i.e., must be re-melted and re-assayed ) as soon as they leave a LBMA chain system’s secure depository.

    5. Minting your own coins is risky because if demand dies down, people will want recognizable coins as bullion investments and you may be sitting on a bunch of gold coins you have to sell below cost.

    As an aside, the total warehouse amount of silver grew by 500K ounces on December 2nd. So we are moving away from “breaking the Comex” there, although 400K oz were delivered.

  9. Just a suggestion…

    I still think that if everyone concentrated their efforts on JUST taking delivery of SILVER or buying SILVER… meaning let gold sit. Then silver can default which in turn will force Gold to default. It only take 75% less effort & 75% less money to do this… as we already know the ratio is about 75 to 1 (silvers price to gold)… we also know that SILVER is rarer & less available then gold, Cental Banks do not hoard Silver, & Silver is used industrially… so it only makes sense to work on SILVER & to leave GOLD alone for the time being… this seems to be only common sense too.

    Jjust my 2 cents.
    TZ

  10. Bill Murphy 2001

    If there is a squeeze coming, throw out all the
    technical jargon being bandied about. It will be
    meaningless. In 1994, I think, Phibro was planning a
    silver squeeze. They had it all figured out. They had
    tied up much of the available physical silver for
    delivery and purchased a huge amount of 520 silver
    calls. Silver expired at around $5 going into the
    option expiry. When silver closed at $5 the eve of the
    expiry, the option writers breathed a sigh of relief
    and were pleased with the money they had made off of
    Phibro.

    Their joy did not last very long. Phibro announced that
    it was exercising its 520 calls. The next day the price
    of silver went berserk, way up. The shorts were caught
    with their pants down and were slaughtered.

  11. Hi I was wondering if you could go back to the old graphs. I really dislike the new bar graphs. The old graphs showed more of a dramatic decline and were easy to understand. Thew new graphs just like completely flat.

  12. Scott

    Thanks for all your hard work on this subject.

    I think you should get in touch with Ted Bulter and his mate izzy … I’m sure that they would have noticed you. David Morgan would be another … I think that all these people would be extremley approachable … David apparently used to track silver on the comex and ted is relentless about tracking silver on the comex. Even Bob Chapman would be approachable … these guys have seen whats happened.

    Keep going with this … Regards

    Todd

  13. Todd,

    Actually, when you look at the delivery reports you can see much of the metal is simply being moved from one speculator to another.

    For example, on Dec 31, 2008 1,072 gold contracts were delivered to JP Morgan BUT at the same time Bank of Nova Scotia’s inventory dropped by 1,067 contracts.

    COMEX doesn’t report on the amount of metal that actually exited their approved warehouses. It can only be inferred from tracking day-to-day changes.

  14. I ve reposted this from the gold comments

    First of all, please excuse me for my no good english.
    I cannot understand your argumentation about your charts.
    Let me sintetize my point of view. Your charts come from Comex pubblic informations.
    A) Daily delivery reports (source: Comex web pages), and these PDF files give us informations about:
    A1) Name of the subjects ask to have material gold;
    A2) How much material gold has been asked (numbers of contracts);
    A3) The amount of gold (ounces) for delivery.
    B) Daily Metal warehouse statistics (source: Comex web pages) and these XLS files gise us informatios about:
    B1) Prev Total of elegible and registered gold for each depository;
    B2) how much (in the day) the gold has been received and withdrown (both registered and elegible);
    B3) net change of the day;
    B4) the new total of the day, both registered and elegible.

    Now, if your argumentation is right, if the day “X” 1,000 ounces have been delivered (data from type A chart of Comex), we may have the same day “X” (or the next days) about 1,000 ounces withdrawn (data from type B chart from Comex), and one of the next days about 1,000 ounces received. And please, since the charts show the subjects asked the material gold for delivery, it must be that the same subjects must be signed as receiving the gold (both registered or elegible?).
    By studing the Comex Charts togheter (type A and B) it is possible to discover if your argumentation is right.
    I think it is a very curious fact that no gold has been materially delivered in december.
    Thanks for your attemption.

  15. Scott,

    So does the comex give u the total amount of silver delivered into the comex for the month and
    delivered out of the comex for the month

    If all those oz got delivered out … was there an unusually high amount delivered into the comex, did the comex have to borrow oz’s to keep its inventory stabel.

  16. Todd,

    My understanding is that First Majestic’s million ounces would be physically moved to one of the COMEX-approved warehouses and initially appear as “eligible” ounces, once verified by COMEX as being of an approved hallmark, purity and weight. “Eligible” means eligible for being “registered” with COMEX.

    If FM wanted to make the silver available for delivery against COMEX futures contracts they would then apply to have their “eligible” silver moved to the “registered” category.

    While new silver could show up quickly in the “eligible” category COMEX may take a week or more to verify the new deposit. It must be in the form of 1,000 oz commercial bars from an approved refiner. If not, it may require re-assaying.

  17. Scott,

    you have noted all the deliveries from comex.
    what about all the refined silver thats delivered into the comex during the month

    Say First majestic get 1 million onces refined and has it sent from the refiner for sale at the comex … does that get immediately added to the registered inventory.

  18. Everyone was frothing over this.All rational posts were shot down as from “Wall Street”

    I posted numerous times that physical premiums were ending.No one listened.

    I get the last laugh..Hahahahahahhaa

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