Of Layoffs & Riots…

From George Ure of Peoplenomics.com fame:

layoffs2009-02-26

Is “ugly” really the right word? And from the Asia Times we have:

A Planet at the Brink?
By Michael T Klare

The global economic meltdown has already caused bank failures, bankruptcies, plant closings, and foreclosures and will, in the coming year, leave many tens of millions unemployed across the planet. But another perilous consequence of the crash of 2008 has only recently made its appearance: increased civil unrest and ethnic strife. Someday, perhaps, war may follow.

As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants, and ethnic minorities.

If the present economic disaster turns into what President Barack Obama has referred to as a “lost decade”, the result could be a global landscape filled with economically-fueled upheavals.

Indeed, if you want to be grimly impressed, hang a world map on your wall and start inserting red pins where violent episodes have already occurred.
Athens (Greece),
– Longnan (China),
– Port-au-Prince (Haiti),
– Riga (Latvia),
– Santa Cruz (Bolivia),
– Sofia (Bulgaria),
– Vilnius (Lithuania), and
– Vladivostok (Russia) would be a start.

Many other cities from Reykjavik, Paris, Rome, and Zaragoza to Moscow and Dublin have witnessed huge protests over rising unemployment and falling wages that remained orderly thanks in part to the presence of vast numbers of riot police. If you inserted orange pins at these locations – none as yet in the United States – your map would already look aflame with activity. And if you’re a gambling man or woman, it’s a safe bet that this map will soon be far better populated with red and orange pins. [more

Be honest now: does anyone still think things will start getting better soon? And that “buy and hold” is a winning strategy in equities?

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11 Responses

  1. Scott,

    I’ve written a few silly messages here, made you chuckle, ha ha…

    The content of this message is gravely serious. Please read the content on this link:

    http://market-ticker.org/archives/846-Here-It-Comes-GE.html

    The time is near, I’m afraid. The irony of this thing is, the shorts who are making profits right now, might get NOTHING if they stay short when the final crash comes…everything could just lock up. This GE thing scares me and what scares me even more is that it seems like the PTB don’t even understand the CDS market enough to know how to regulate or fix it. Basically, we’re all f*cked because of fraud and ignorance.

    I never thought I’d take this step, but come this weekend, I’ll be doing some heavy duty grocery shopping; heavy on storable items (beans, rice, canned stuff, etc.) At this point, I’m not even convinced that PM’s are a good investment here…could go either way…USD or PM’s; which one will skyrocket? I don’t know…I just don’t know…guess a guy should have some of both?

    This is all such bullsh*t; I’ve worked hard for years and this is what I get? All I want is a government that at least TRIES to do the right thing for our country and our fellow citizen, but its becoming apparent to me that the opposite is happening, that our own gov could be taking actions that they know are harmful to us all, all of us except for the rich and powerful, that is. Why don’t they prosecute those who have broken the law? Why don’t they force those who have made bad bets to take their losses? Why are we all expected to shoulder the load for all of this?

    I’m not angry; I’m just disappointed, and maybe a little scared of what I see this great country of ours possibly turning into. I have a strong Christian faith and I know that regardless of what happens here, my family has a home with Father God in Heaven, but I had always hoped that my children would have a better life and more opportunity than I had growing up and I now see that hope of mine as not likely to happen, not likely at all.

    Peace be with you.

    • Cornholio, I Just Sold off just about all of my equities except the mining shares. Thanks for the GE heads up, thats definitely all I need to see to be able to determine where this market is going. I’m done with the market, at least until the total meltdown occurs & the US dollar collapses.

      What a mess. I am absolutely sick to my stomach with all the corruption in this world. I am truly heartbroken.

      I’m almost a little jealous of the sheeple. They are so blissfully ignorant. I forgot what it was like to be clueless.

      What the hell are we gonna do with all these people who have no clue when this thing pops. Thats the part that scares me.

      • ”What the hell are we gonna do with all these people who have no clue when this thing pops. Thats the part that scares me.” Truefire.

        You have a good point.

        Let tell you something about it. I warned people all around, I quit my good paid job in order to save my pension plan. I quitted, then it crashed.

        I made more enemies than friends trying to awake them. They don’t care or they are afraid of.

        There is nothing you could do for them. They are asleep and will remain such.

        For your own, you protect yourself and familliy, and real friends with the best you can.

        SWHTF, pretty soon, and it will be global. Seeds to grow up things, a sailboat (cheap now) for leaving or fishing, canning. cross your fingers and pray.

        best luck to you all.

        • Hiram,

          All of you who’ve tried to warn friends & family: you are true patriots and heros. And, you know personally how no good dead goes unpunished. My beautiful wife has lived through years of my raving. My high-school son warns his friends, “don’t bring up the gov’t, silver, stock market, religion, yada yada” before they come over to play Guitar Hero. I’ve noticed the crusty stares I get from those I’m just trying to help.

          So many just wanna stay asleep. They’re convinced if they keep their heads in the sand the coming tragedies will magically pass them by. Or, if they’re with the AARP set they still think the gov’t is there to help ’em out.

          But, sometimes it makes a difference. Just last night I spent 2 1/2 hours on the phone with my aunt from Wyoming. She called ME wanting to know about “gold.” She remembered me going on about it a couple Christmases past. So, you don’t always know when your efforts to help may pay off. By the end of the call she had decided to buy some gold eagles.

          Right now, though, I honestly am most worried about one thing: in spite of the years I’ve spent preparing for what’s about to hit us this summer I truly fear I haven’t done enough. I’m afraid I’ll only be able to “save” my immediate family. The parents/cousins/brothers will have to fend for themselves; if they haven’t taken the right steps may God help them. I won’t be able to.

    • Possible CRASH ALERT!

      Confidence is high! Repeat, Confidence is high!

      Get your SH*T together NOW! Get your canned stuff NOW! Get your financial situation taken care of NOW! The time is NOW!

      http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html

      Glad I have a farm to bug-out to…

      • There is not a scrap of new evidence in the article, so why are you shouting “CRASH ALERT” ? Nothing has changed.

        I agree with the scenario he paints, but people have been saying this for ages now. Mike Whitney was saying exactly the same thing in 2006. It is coming, but there is no new evidence it is going to be tomorrow.

        It sounds like you have only just woken up to the problem and are running round like a chook with its head cut off.

        You are indeed lucky to have a farm to go to. You should be there already, planting vegetables, not wasting time on the internet. Have you ever considered what you must sound like to people who have no assets or savings or 401(k). There are millions of them in the US and billions of them in the real world. At best they will say to themselves, “Aaah, poor rich white guy, moaning over his loses.”

  2. OK, please let me rephrase that. Any set of numbers can have a 5th order trendline calculated for it. Or a 4th order, or a 6th order. It is just a set of mathematical calculations looking for the best fit of a curve to the data set.

    The important question is whether you think the current trend is likely to be continued into the future, or whether you think something new and trend-breaking is happening. If the latter, then the current trend is of little use to you.

    If you ( or George Ure ) look at the data again and this time calculate the trend based only on the data for 2003 to 2007, and project the 5th order trendline forward for 2008, do you think you will have a good fit with the 2008 data ? No, 2008 was earth-shatteringly different from the 2003-7 trend.

    For a laugh, see George’s predictions for 2008 at http://www.urbansurvival.com/c2csnotes20080102.pdf
    The whole thing reads no better than astrology. He is definitely not a mathematician.

    There is surely no argument that these are interesting times, so trendlines, 5th order or otherwise, cannot be used to predict the future.

  3. If there is no reason to believe that layoff statistics are really following a 5th order polynomial, then a 5th order polynomial is useless for forecasting.

    Why choose the timeframe 2003-8 ? If you chose a different timeframe, you would get a different forecast.

    This is so elementary that I have to wonder if you know what you are talking about at all.

    • Dave Kimble,

      You could be right, I just don’t know. I’m not a statistician so I can’t comment on the veracity of a 5th order polynomial trend line. I think 2003 was chosen as it’s when the last upturn started (after the 2001/2002 recession).

      BTW, as is noted on the graph itself, I didn’t create it. It’s from the Peoplenomics web site.

  4. Cornholio,
    If deflation is a hoax & inflation is around the corner wouldn’t that show up in PM’s?

    PM’s are definitely not a get rich quick scheme, they are a don’t become destitute scheme.

    You are preparing to become a millionaire in US dollars? whoop de doo! You have a million soon to be worthless dollars. You better use em quick.

    Bloomberg is hot on the trail, 11 trillion commitment by the fed to bail out the banks & AIG so far and that is on the backs of the US citizen. GDP shrinking, tax revenues shrinking, spending increasing, medicaid, medicare & SS skyrocketing. There is not enough money in the galaxy to pay for all of this.

    Go for it, plat the market. I will buy some more silver.

  5. I’m back; for one last post.

    The stock market has bottomed, and based on my charts at T.A., we could see an increase of 30%-150% in the DOW & S&P within the next 18-months.

    Gold & Silver will lose10% or more in price over the next 24-months and should slowly climb higher from there (PM’s are a fifty year investment right now, not a get-rich-quick vehicle.).

    Grains will SOAR. Right now, China, Austrailia, South America, and most of the USA are in the grips of a 80-year drought, RIGHT NOW; yet we hear nothing about this on the news. I’m looking for wheat to hit north of $23/bushel within 18-months (get ready for $7 boxes of cereal!). If you are risked-inclined, you can buy a mini-Wheat futures contract (1,000 bushel) for a $675 initial margin, or a full contract (5,000 bushel) for $3375. Futures are VERY DANGEROUS, so be prepared to lose everything on short-term price swings. I now have 10 full Wheat contracts (50,000 bushel) at $5.03/bushel. I plan to add contracts as the price of wheat increases (aka, pyramiding) and intend to become a millionaire with this trade in less than two years.

    Inflation is lurking around the corner…deflation is a hoax…always was…

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