What’s Coming Shortly Is Bad, But…

Sure, you’ve got some things lining up for the second phase of the Meltdown. For your consideration:

1) FDIC has run out of money so they’ve stopped closing banks they’d otherwise have to bail out. Ominous, as this strategy is not sustainable. [link]

2) CITI bank has lost $8,000,000,000 in their credit card business this year and are on life support. They suddenly shut off a bunch of gas cards last week.

3) CIT is the major provider of financing for small/medium business in US. They’re on life support, too. When (not “if”) they go under they’ll take the major source of jobs in the US with them. B-A-D…

4) People taking delivery of gold futures contracts from Sept are now seeing 22K (.916 fine) bars delivered instead of the required 24K (.999 fine) bars. The gold ETF “GLD” is required to publish a list of all gold bar serial numbers each day. 85% of these bars have gone missing from the list. [link]

5) J.P.Morgan and Deutsche Bank have offered bribe money up to 125 percent of the quoted spot price to holders of Sept. long contracts if they would take settlement in paper, on condition that the embarrassing affair will be kept secret. [link] JPMorgan doesn’t have the gold they were selling short!

6) Jim Sinclair’s Dollar Death Countdown started at 150 days. It reaches zero in 3 weeks.

end-of-recession_sm7) The VIX (aka “Fear Index”) is the lowest it’s been all year [link]. No one is expecting anything bad to happen.

8) In the last month guess who’s announced plans for replacement currencies for the US dollar? China, Saudi Arabia, France, Japan, Russia, Brazil, India. The latest is Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua. [link

9) George Ure and the Web Bot guys have been warning about a major event/turning point Oct. 25 +- 1 week with an 85/15 probability of being financial in nature.

The following snippet is from George Ure (one of the Web Bot guys). Note the mention of the “#1 market timer for 2008 by Hulbert’s Financial Digest.” Hulbert’s reviews hundreds of financial newsletters each year and is highly respected…

Coping:  With the Bad Part of 2010

Had a most interesting conversation with Arch Crawford last night about what’s ahead, not only for the ugly part of this year’s market (wait a week or two and you won’t be saying “huh?”) but also about the really ugly part of 2010; which is you want to mark it down should show up sometime between late July and Early August of next year by his work.

Crawford has been writing a financial newsletter for about 32 years and was “ranked #1 market timer for the 2008 calendar year” by Hulbert’s Financial Digest.  What’s interesting about Crawford’s work is that it’s an astrologically based report – although other cycles are considered, too – which makes it interesting when a person (like me) is trying to line up periods where multiple predictive systems are all pretty much saying the same thing.

Just as the predictive linguistics work is pointing to big market moves starting as early as late Sunday (Monday in Asian trading time) Crawford’s work shows there’s a rough patch there.

But more worrisome is his take on the mid-2010 period.  “It’s about the worst we’ve ever seen,” he told me.

How bad is bad?

“Well, when something is worse than the Revolutionary War, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II, that’s bad – it’s the worst I’ve seen the charts in over 200-years.

As he explains it, there’s Mars conjunction Saturn which will be in opposition to Jupiter conjucting Uranus all squaring Pluto.

Not that it means a hill of beans to me – I’ll take a GPS reading, thanks –  but because of the Pluto is where it is mid summer of next year the biggie stuff out there is likely to be planetary in nature.

Interestingly, this also corresponds to the predictive linguistics work what has the big showdown basically between good guys and bad guys there; a time when the global mass of humans will be seeking revenge/change/retribution from the PTB.

If you were sketching out a kind of mid-range path between Crawford’s work, Cliff’s linguistics work, Robin Landry’s Elliott (and then some) and trying to sketch out a trading path, it might go something like this:

  • From late October till early/mid December, a good-sized market decline, perhaps testing the March ’09 market lows around Dow 6,627.

  • Right after the first of the year, I’d be expecting a whole new chorus of “Good times are just ahead” and the ‘gloves to come off’ in terms of government control, imposition of group-think, and once the mutated swine flu comes out of the Winter Games, then lots of clamping down of people’s freedom of movement.

  • During this period, I’d be looking for energy to ‘shoot the moon’ along with the precious metals – oh boy!

  • And then as the social order collides with the globalist agenda over July-August, I’d look for the markets to be as bad as at any time in 200-years.

Hard telling how it will all play out, but the predictive linguistics would seem to fit this pretty well (they tend to state the most dire of language) but when other systems of getting a bead on the future start to line up, as I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers last week, that’s when I start figuring out how to be as we say here in Texas ‘all in’.

Governator Squeezes Trigger for Crime-n-Riots

Scott's Soapbox

I admit I’ve been quiet for quite a while here, waiting for that thunk of the other shoe. Plus, the road ahead isn’t just filled with potholes, to me it’s looking downright cratered.

Seriously.

governator_poster_70x82Seriously B-A-D. I am more worried now than I was last August, before everything tanked. And, it’s cost me a lot of my admittedly-diminished piece-of-mind. I’ve been nearly paralyzed with foreboding these last six weeks, andI haven’t been able to bring myself to spend much time on this site blogging the imminent (further) collapse.

And California, the world’s 7th largest economy, could be the first car in the jerking roller-coaster ride to the bottom. He warned they have until June 15 to make draconian cuts or face insolvency by the end of July. [link]

What Will Trigger The Coming Riots
20090527_CA_cuts_150x210What do you think will happen in Califonia when the Governator cuts off welfare as promised? [link] Do you think crime will go up or down as a result?

And what message is being sentto the judicial system for California’s 36,756,666 residents when Arnold is releasing prisoners EARLY cuz the state can’t afford the incarceration expense? [link]

Is it crazy to foresee an explosion in crime, some of it violent, that escalates once the disenfranchised realize they “ain’t gonna do time” over petty crime? And, is it really that much of a stretch to envision the crime turning ever more violent as the masses realize the cops can’t stop it?

We are months (not even a year) away from big-city riots in this country.

Gun Confiscation Won’t Make It Safer
The ripples of GM’s bankruptcy and California’s crash will be felt from shore to shore. It’s going to be hard to hide from it. If you currently live in (or within a day’s walk for a hungry male) a large population-concentration things will get “I-wish-I-bought-that-20-gauge-shotgun” ugly for you if you stay one day past the tipping point.

I’m not the only one thinking like this: legislators in the Great State of Tennessee just enacted a law PREVENTING gun confiscation in the event of martial law [link]. Yes, that’s supposed to be a constitutional right but Tennessee doesn’t trust the Feds after what they did during Katrina.

Care to jog your memory a bit?
-ABC News vid showing the gun confiscation by troops.
-Watch the CNN video of a 61-year-old lady tackled by cops in her home while taking her gun.

Is There A Chance I Could Be Right?
Hmmm… check my track record on big-picture stuff. Looks like I notch another win with the bankruptcy of GM and selling of bankrupt Chrysler to “Fix It Again, Tony.” (Worst car I ever had was a 1969 Fiat850 Spyder. 2ndworse car was a Plymouth Fury III land yacht. Shoulda been a crime to sell dogs like these to struggling teens.) [My Predictions from Feb 2008]

Protect Yourself.
Protect your family. If you live in a larger city move (I did in 2004, but I always seem to be too early  to the party). This is often impractical so at least phone up a friend/relative living in an area with a lower population density and “joke” about coming to visit if TSHTF. Seriously. Ask him what you can bring that would make him happy to see you. 

Get other ideas from Checking Off My “To Do” List. Also look at Warnings & Advice from a Saint, Part 3 for 6 things you can do starting today.

Scott

U hav no idea how bad its gonna git

America By 2012: 10 Dire Predictions

If this doesn’t make you think–make you want to prepare–I don’t know what will. From “Big Jake” on SeekingAlpha, “The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)” [edited for length]

Since the economy began sliding downhill in late 2007, mainstream economic and market experts have consistently erred on the sunny side.

As late as June 2008, mainstream consensus held that the U.S. was heading for a “soft landing” and would avoid recession.

Several months later, the slump was acknowledged to have started in January 2008, but we were supposed to see renewed growth by mid-2009, with unemployment peaking in the eight-to-nine percent range. A quick “shovel-ready” stimulus bag was supposed to set us back on the road to prosperity.

In January, recovery projections were pushed forward to late 2009. Today, the consensus is for a mid-2010 recovery, with unemployment peaking at just over 10 percent. Clearly, the mainstream has struggled to catch up to reality for well over one year. What are the chances that they finally have it right this time?

In the interests of providing you with an alternate vision—something outside the mainstream—below are ten predictions for America through the year 2012. This is not boilerplate doom-saying. Rather, I am laying out in highly specific terms what will happen over the next three-odd years. Others have thrown around the term “Depression”, but I am going to tell you precisely what it means for you, your investments, and your community.

economy shipwreck_140x103Prediction one.
The twenty-five-year equities bubble pops in 2009: the S&P 500 will sink below 500. In a bid to stem the panic, the government will enforce periodic “stock market holidays”, and will vastly expand the scope of its short-selling prohibitions—eventually banning short-selling altogether.

Prediction two.
401K was a pot of gold_140x112With public pension systems and tens of millions of 401k holders virtually wiped out—and with the Baby Boomers retiring en masse—there will be tremendous pressure on the government to get into the stock market in order to bid up prices.

Therefore, sometime in 2010, the Federal Reserve will create and loan out hundreds of billions of fresh dollars to the usual well-connected suspects, instructing them to buy up stocks on the public’s behalf. This scheme will have a fancy but meaningless name—something like the “Taxpayer Assurance Equities Facility”. It will have no effect other than to serve as buyer of last resort for capitulating smart-money types who want to get out of stocks entirely.

eviction notice_140x108Prediction three.
Millions of new retirees—including white-collar people with high expectations for a Golden Retirement—will be left virtually penniless. Thousands will starve or freeze to death in their own homes. Hundreds of thousands will find themselves evicted and homeless, or will have to move in with their less-than-enthusiastic children. Already strained by the rising tide of the working-age unemployed, state and local welfare services will be overwhelmed, and by 2012 will have largely collapsed and ceased to function in many parts of the country.

PDollar Reaches for HELP_140x172rediction four.
“Quantitative easing” will fail to restart previous patterns of lending and consumption. As the government sends out additional “rebate” checks and takes ever-more drastic measures to force banks to lend, hyperinflation could take hold. However, comprehensive debt relief via a devaluation of the dollar is even more likely. This would entail the government issuing one “new” dollar for some greater number of “old” dollars—thus reducing both debts and savings simultaneously.

Prediction five.
The government will stop pretending that it can finance continuous multi-trillion-dollar deficits on the private market. By late 2010, the sole buyers of new U.S. Treasury and agency bonds will be the Federal Reserve and a few derelict financial institutions under government control. This may or may not lead to hyperinflation. (See prediction four).

will code HTML for food_140x141Prediction six.
The government’s narrow unemployment figure (U3) will rise into the high teens by late 2010. The government’s broader unemployment figure (U6) will cease to be reported when it reaches 25 percent—it will simply be too embarrassing. Ultimately, one in three work-eligible Americans will be unemployed, underemployed, or never-employed (e.g. college grads permanently unable to find suitable work).

corruption_140x138Prediction seven.
With their pension dreams squashed, and their salaries frozen or cut, police and other local government workers will turn to wholesale corruption in order to survive. America’s ideal of honest, courteous, and impartial cops, teachers, and small-time local functionaries will have come to an end.

Prediction eight.
Commercial overcapacity will strike with a vengeance. By 2012, thousands of enclosed malls, strip malls, unfinished residential developments, motels, truck stops, distribution centers, middle-of-nowhere resorts and casinos, and small-city airports across America will turn into dilapidated, unwanted, and dangerous ghost towns. With no economic incentive for their maintenance or repair, they will crumble into overgrown, plywood-and-sheet-rock ruins.

trapped by mortgage_140x103Prediction nine.
By the end of 2010, tens of millions of households will have fallen behind on their mortgages or stopped paying altogether. Many banks will be unable to process the massive volume of foreclosure paperwork, much less actually seize and resell the homes.

Devaluation (as mentioned in prediction four) could ease the situation for those mortgage holders still afloat, but it would also eliminate any incentive for most banks to stay in the mortgage business. In any case, the housing market in many parts of the country will lock up completely—nothing bought or sold.

With virtually no loans being made, even the government will finally acknowledge that most banks are fundamentally insolvent. A general bank run will only be averted through a roughly one trillion-dollar recapitalization of the FDIC, courtesy of new money from the Federal Reserve.

Prediction ten.
As an economy is never independent of the society within which it functions, the next few paragraphs will focus on social and political factors. These factors will have as much of an impact on market and consumer confidence as any developments in the financial sector.

1992_LA Riots_140x126Whether rightly or not, President Obama, having come to power at the dawn of this crisis, will be blamed for it by over 50 percent of the population. He will be a one-term president. In response to his perceived socialization of America, there will be a swarm of secessionist and extremist activity, much of it violent. Militias and armed sects will be more prominent than in the early 1990s. Stand-off dramas, violent score-settlings, and going-out-with-a-bang attacks by laid-off workers and bankrupted investors—already a national plague—will become an everyday occurrence.

For both economic and social reasons, millions of immigrants and guest workers will return to their home countries, taking their assets and skills with them. The flow of skilled immigrants will slow to a trickle. Birth rates will plummet as families struggle with uncertainty and reduced (or no) income.

Property crime will explode as citizens bitter over their own shattered dreams attempt to comfort themselves by taking what is not theirs. Mutinies and desertions will proliferate in an increasingly demoralized, over-stretched military, especially when states can no longer provide the educational and other benefits promised to their National Guard troops.

IRS shakedown_140x212There will be widespread tax collection issues, and a huge backlash against Federal and state bureaucrats who demand three-percent annual pay raises while private sector wages remain frozen or worse. In short, the “Tea Parties” of tomorrow will likely not be so restrained.

Finally, between now and 2012, we are likely to see another earth-shaking national embarrassment on the scale of the 9/11 attacks or Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. This will demonstrate conclusively to all Americans that their government, even under a savior-figure like Obama, cannot, in fact, save them.

By 2012, there will be a general feeling that the nation is in immediate danger of blowing up or coming apart at the seams. This fear will be justified, given that the U.S. has always been held together by the promise of a continuously rising material standard of living—the famous “pursuit of happiness”—rather than any ethnic or religious ties. If that goes, so could everything else. We were lucky in the 1930s—we may not be so lucky again.

What You Weren’t Told on 9/11/2008

Courtesy of CSPAN on Feb 6, 2009 a congressman from Pennsylvania reveals new info about what really happened last Sept 11, 2008.

This info has been kept from you until now.

Timeframe:
9/11/2008 was four days AFTER the gov’t bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac AND five days BEFORE the collapse of Lehman Bros and AIG [See History of the Meltdown…].

What Happened:
Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a “tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars.” According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occured over the period of an hour or two starting at 11:00am.

The Fed intervened, closing access to the markets. They explained if they HAD NOT stepped would have been a $5 trillion “bank run” by 2:00pm that day. Bernanke and Paulsen claimed this would have collapsed the US economy that same day, a new “financial” 9/11.

Dollar Death Warning


OK, this is getting interesting now. The chances of a complete collapse of the US Dollar that leads to its replacement with a new, re-valued American currency (say, “Amero” perhaps?) have increased.

I know, this sounds completely unthinkable.

But would you have believed me a year ago if I said:
– the stock market would be down 40%,
– the nation’s largest mortgage company will die (Countrywide),
– the nation’s largest insurer will die (AIG),
– the nation’s first money market fund will go under,
– the nation’s largest bank failure will happen (WaMu),
– the nation’s largest bankruptcy will occur (Lehman Bros),
– Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac will go belly-up,
– 13 banks will fail, including Wachovia and IndyMac,
– All Wall Street investment banks will be dead or dying (Lehman, Merrill, Bear, Goldman, Morgan)

So, suspend your disbelief for a moment and consider these four data points suggesting a total collapse of the dollar:

1) Jim Sinclair (hero) has outlined how the dollar will be re-valued once it drops below USDX 0.52 [link]. He expects this to happen no later than January 14, 2011.

2) George Green (hero), millionaire insider and former investment banker/real estate mogul, had lunch last month with an unnamed Congressman. He was told “In six months you won’t recognize the American currency.” This implies a total collpase and replacement of the dollar by the last week in March 2009. 

3) Roger Weigand, 40-year veteran of the precious metals markets and editor of the Trader Tracks newsletter, had this to say in a new interview [link].

“I have word from a high-level official the dollar and our currency systems are going to breakdown before January 15th. I hope it doesn’t happen, but that’s my contact’s prognosis has been correct 99 times out of 100. That’s pretty scary.”
TGR: So if the system breaks down then what?
RW: “The dollar, bonds, and non-precious metals shares will tank. We’ll have massive inflation, prices will go up, the economy will stagnate, and a lot of businesses will grind to a halt. That’s a depression, not a recession.”
TGR: What will gold do?
RW: “Gold will skyrocket.”

4)  The predictive linguistic work of www.halfpasthuman.com has indicated for more than a year of a ‘death of the dollar’ event to play out in some November of an unknown year. This technique is gaining credibility as it was used to predict the Christmas Tsunami a few years back and the China earthquake two months ago. They are now seeing a 5-month long period of increasingly dire financial and military events leading up to “The Summer From Hell” in 2009.

Update 10/19/2008: I just ran across a tidbit from the Predictive Linguistics guys at HalfPastHuman:
“If you want to put temporal markers out there, do something that’s big and happening soon enough – like the ‘things go badly for American expatriates”…that one is going big and coming really fast…should peak in about two months and then fade off into late February.”
“Dollar collapse means ‘Ugly American’ labels, more like it.  By March 2009 the issue fades under the other bigger items which will impact by March-April 2009, most likely.”

When we’re under a prolonged “bank holiday”, the markets are in a death spiral, inflation is going nuts and the good ol’ greenback is used to line your birdcage, you can still “stand fast against the crash of breaking worlds.” Calmly open up your safe and gaze on your store of true wealth: gold and silver bullion.

Update 10/20/2008: The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has issued a strongly-worded warning about the impending demise of the US economy next summer, including the death of the dollar. [read more]

Check this out: Hyperinflation: What It Looks Like
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