Maybury Issues Inflation Alert

Richard MayburyRichard Maybury describes himself as “The 2,500-year old man,” referring to his deep study of history (economic & otherwise) and how it repeats today.

Back in December Mr. Maybury warned the current deflationary environment would soon flip into a strongly inflationary one [Deflation Xforming to Inflation Soon]. At that time he said, “In any case, when I think the bottom has happened, I will let my subscribers know on the Subscriber Access part of our web site. No guarantees, but I’ll do my best to get it right.”

Yesterday he issued the alert. [Read full text here.]

He says, The bottom of the deflationary stage of this crisis has arrived. However, it is not an unqualified call to buy every non-dollar asset you can get your hands on.

“As you know, US officials plan to force taxpayers who pay their debts to subsidize those who don’t. This is diverting flows of money, creating larger profits in some areas and larger risks in others. There are colossal opportunities now, but also traps.

“I believe it is highly likely the world is entering the worst economic crisis since the fall of the Roman Empire. Never before in 2,500 years of economic history have people gone through this kind of situation with a world reserve currency that was fiat paper, not gold. We’re trying to ride out an 8.0 earthquake in a house built on sand.”

Subscriber Only Details
As the details are only for subscribers of Mr. Maybury’s excellent Early Warning Report I’ll only summarize it here. Five specific events in March persuaded him to call the bottom. 

1) March 23, 2009. China’s central bank governor said the US dollar should be replaced as the world reserve currency. That was the most powerful attack yet on the dollar’s credibility. (China is the largest holder of US dollar assets.)

As foreign holders begin to question the dollar’s viability they will try to dump their greenbacks. Lots of things inside the US are at fire sale prices, so, as these foreign greenbacks are shaken loose, money will flow into the US to buy those bargains. This will increase the money supply in the US, adding to the Federal Reserve’s own inflation of the money supply.

2) Increased fear of the dollar will also contribute to a rise in velocity, both inside and outside the country.

3) March 20th, 2009. At the Independent Community Bankers meeting a Bernanke squeeze doll was handed out, and Bernanke was the target of ridicule. The only thing backing the fiat paper dollar is the credibility of the US central bank. When foreigners see the Fed’s own banking community jeering the Fed honcho, the loss of confidence in the dollar will worsen and contribute to a rise in velocity.

4) March 18th, 2009. The Fed announced it will purchase billions of dollars of mortgages and government bonds. This will inject more new dollars into the financial system, and direct hundreds of billions of them into real estate. The real estate bubble will be re-inflated. [See Dollar Death in May?]

5) Orders for big-ticket durable goods, new homes and existing homes have risen recently. This shows that money is on the move and flowing back into some of the largest sectors of the economy.”

Mr. Maybury thinks for several months we will experience more of a U-shaped bottom than a V-shaped bottom.

For a while, a lot of money may leave the more liquid financial investments such as stocks, bonds and CDs, and flow into real estate. The beginnings of the new real estate bubble could be accompanied by a further deflation of stocks, bonds and perhaps even commodities.

In short, the re-inflation of the housing bubble could be so intense that it will suck money out of the financial markets.

Mr. Maybury expects the first incident in the coming inflationary crisis will be a global monetary disaster, with the dollar plunging in international currency markets.

Conclusion
Mr. Maybury recommends an assertive strategy to take advantage of the opportunities the inflationary trouble generates.

He is currently buying gold, silver, platinum, specific silver mining stocks and a specific solar energy company that he pegs the risk at 2.0 or less – and the three-year profit potential of 1,500%. (Subscribe if you want more specifics.)

And I love the way Mr. Maybury closes his special alert, “You are on my mind constantly, and I am doing all I can to help you stay safe and prosperous.”

See also:
Inflation, Intervention & Velocity of Money

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Dollar Death in May?

Quick snippet of brain food and a prediction from George Ure over at Urban Survival:

The Plan: We Buy Our Own Debt?
Ben BernankeBen Bernanke’s recent comments that the Fed will Deploy all tools‘ to push along the economic revival plan may, or may not, be read as a ‘good’ thing.  Legendary commodities trader Jim Rogers tells Bloomberg that among the ‘all the tools’ might be the Fed buying Treasury securities which, he figures, will delay the inevitable.

Snake Eats Its Own Tail, Or…
All of which might work for a while, just like the shoemaker buying the all the bread the baker can bake, while the baker buys all the shoemaker’s shoes.  The problems arise when, at the end of such a circular reference, the shoemaker or baker wants to sell product to a third party having bid up prices amongst one another.

It’s then that the truth slips out, that the circularly referenced deal was a sham, and prices of shoes and bread collapse in a heap.  Or, if we go down that slippery slow of buying our own debt from ourselves, how that will be viewed by the only folks that are keeping the world together right now: China.

Beware May 2009
dollar-drowns70x112The moment the Chinese wake up and proclaim:  We want something of real value, not just more paper, then the U.S.A. has a serious problem on its hands. 

That’s when our currency collapses, China becomes the world economic superpower and we drop to nth place as a third world country.  But not to worry; the linguistics on this indicate it won’t get underway until [mid] May of this year and the workout will run from late summer out through 2010 and beyond.

Related:
George is not the only one predicting a dollar collapse in May. Consider the Think Tank’s 2009 Predictions.

Think Tank’s 2009 Predictions

leap2020This is the latest update from the LEAP/E2020 think tank in Europe. I’ve monitored them for a year or so. Their predictive track record is solid. (My previous posts include: Global Systemic Crisis Alert and US Implosion By Summer 2009?.)

Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases:
1) trigger, (2007 mortgage/derivative crisis (ed.))
2) acceleration, (March 2008 Bear Stearns collapse (ed.))
3) impact and (Sept/Oct 2008 market/financial collapse (ed.))
4) decanting phases <– we are here now (ed.) 
This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now.

However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.

According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by:

A. Two major processes:
1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks

B. Two parallel sequences:
1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.

We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII.

Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard.

In the United States, as in Europe, China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown. In fact, the global system is simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be saved.

The fifth phase of the crisis will ignite this required process of reconstruction, but in a harsh manner: by means of a complete dislocation of the present system, with particularly tragic consequences in the case of several big global players.

According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to prevent this scenario from shaping up.

The April 2009 G20 Summit is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the sequence of UK and then US defaults begin. Failing which, they will lose their capacity to control events, including those in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase of geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”.

At the end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007.

It is high time for the general population to get ready to face very hard times during which whole segments of our societies will be modified, temporarily disappear or even permanently vanish.

For instance, the breakdown of the global monetary system we anticipated for summer 2009 will indeed entail the collapse of the US dollar (and all USD-denominated assets), but it will also induce, out of psychological contagion, a general loss of confidence in paper money altogether.

Last but not least, our team now estimates that the most monolithic, the most “imperialistic” political entities will suffer the most from this fifth phase of the crisis.

Some countries will indeed experience a strategic dislocation undermining their territorial integrity and their influence worldwide (end of the US Empire (ed.)). As a consequence, other countries will suddenly lose their protected situations and be thrust into regional chaos (widespread protests, unrest, civil war (ed.)). [more]

Your editor asks you: Got gold? Got silver?
Do you know what steps to take? I’ve been busy Checking Off My “To Do” List

Cartel’s End Game Has a “Nasty Twist”

I’ve read the DeepCaster posts for a few years now, they have a great handle on what’s really driving the markets. Their latest post exposes The Cartel’s (I call them the “Shadow Powers“) End Game and a newly-revealed “nasty twist.” Excerpt follows:

The Quiet Official Initiative to implement the End Game was launched at the so-called Summit Meeting among Presidents Bush, Fox of Mexico, and Martin of Canada, in Waco, Texas in March, 2006.

In the Summer, 2006, Deepcaster was among the first to warn of a Massive Financial and Geopolitical Scheme (“Massive Financial Geopolitical Scheme Not Reported by Big Media,” August, 2006) with ominously negative consequences both for investors and citizens in general.  Subsequently, on June 6, 2007, Deepcaster gave further warning in an article entitled “Profiting From the Push to Denationalize Currencies and Deconstruct Nations” (both available in the Articles Cache at www.deepcaster.com).

In these Articles we described this Scheme as The Cartel’s “End Game.”  Now there is increasing evidence that this “End Game” involves a heretofore hidden “Nasty Twist” which could seriously injure investors and non-favored (by The Cartel) financial institutions around the world.  To understand this Nasty Twist we must provide a bit of background.

A key component of this multi-faceted Scheme is the replacement of the U.S. Dollar with the “Amero” as the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) consultant Robert Pastor named it.  This, of course, would entail the final destruction of the U.S. Dollar, a demise of which has already begun – or should we say, is being managed by The Cartel.  This Scheme appears to be an integral part of The Cartel’s Interventional Overt and Covert Regime, which involves manipulation of many Markets and Statistics.

Notwithstanding the recent and continuing (for a while) bounce in the U.S, Dollar which Deepcaster earlier Forecast, the long-term trend is “down” for the U.S. Dollar and will continue so because destruction of the value of the U.S. Dollar has been “baked into the cake” by The private-for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve.

It is ‘baked into the cake’ because The Fed has for years implemented “easy money” and easy credit policies by, inter alia, dramatically increasing the money supply.  Thus the latest annualized rate for M3 is nearly 12%, and that rate has reached as high as 17% within the last year, per shadowstats.com.  That rate virtually guarantees continued Consumer Price Inflation (now still at about 8% a year in the U.S. according to shadowstats.com).  And it guarantees the Real U.S. Unemployment Rate will exceed the Real current level of 18% (per shadowstats.com).  But it also guarantees the eventual demise of the U.S. Dollar.

Three of the many pernicious effects of the Destruction of the U.S. Dollar (a key component of The Cartel’s End Game Scheme) are:

1) The veiled destruction of the U.S. Middle Class (and middle classes throughout the industrialized world) through the destruction of its purchasing power and

2) The diminishment and/or outright confiscation of wealth of all economic classes and Investors world-wide whose wealth is held in U.S. Dollar-denominated assets and

3) The likely further enrichment of the owners of the private-for-profit U.S. Federal Reserve and those financial institutions, which it favors – clearly Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were not favored financial institutions.

Yes, the U.S. Dollar’s demise is already underway.  Though very recently it has given the appearance of some buoyancy as a result of bottoming just above 71 on the USDX and then recently bouncing to around 85, it has nonetheless been in a sustained downtrend for several years now.  Of course, this downtrend can NOT make the foreign government and other holders of over $2 trillion of U.S. Treasury Securities feel much comfort since the actual value (e.g. purchasing power) of their portfolios of U.S. Treasury paper has continued to diminish.

Another powerful factor determining the U.S. Dollar’s fate is that of the $683 Trillion in dark OTC Derivatives outstanding as of June, 2008, (www.bis.org, Path:  Statistics>Derivatives>Table 19) many Trillions are Toxic or potentially Toxic.

Deepcaster has addressed the issue of the demise of the U.S. Dollar on other occasions.  But the consequences of the demise are so significant that one should consider the possible alternatives to the U.S. Dollar and the implications of each.

There are two major Alternatives to the U.S. Dollar (and other similarly weakening fiat currencies).  One is re-linking the (presently fiat) currencies to Gold and Silver, an approach that Deepcaster has long favored as fundamentally sound.

The other Alternative (doubtless favored by The Cartel of Key Central Bankers and certain other favored entities involved in international finance) is to catalyze or force the collapse of major national “fiat” currencies such as the U.S. Dollar in order to create a regional currency, such as the Amero, as part of their overall “End Game.”

Thus the battle lines are drawn for the Great Currency War of the next few years:  Gold and Silver-based currencies versus the Amero and other Fiat Currencies. [more]

WSJ Talks Amero

I just ran across this article in the Wall Street Journal’s online site, MarketWatch. The establishment mainstream is openly discussing the New World Order and the Amero’s place in it.

When I first heard about the Amero in 2005 I thought it was conspiracy BS. Methinks times and circumstances have proven me wrong. Exceprts:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Thomas Jefferson once said: “When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on.” As the global financial system pushes on a string, investors are desperately trying to hold tight.

The New World Order is upon us, full of hope, promise and a fair amount of fear. In our recent discussion regarding the direction of our country, we noted the risks of catering to conventional wisdom and the implications for the U.S. dollar.

The Minyanville mantra is to provide financial news you need to know before you know you need it. That’s a fine line to walk, as foresight often flies in the face of mainstream acceptance.

In 2006, it seemed counterintuitive to forecast a “prolonged socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession.”

For years, the notion of an “invisible hand” was conspiracy theory until we learned that the Working Group on Financial Markets was a central policy tool.

And now, as we gaze across our historically significant horizon, we must open our minds to thoughts and ideas that may seem foreign to folks conditioned by the past and stunned by the present.

Years ago, the Federal Reserve wrote a “solution paper” regarding the need to combat zero-bound interest rates. The concern was the flight of capital from the U.S. and an option discussed was a two-tiered currency, one for U.S citizens and one for foreigners.

Canadian economist Herbert Grubel first introduced a potential manifestation of this concept in 1999. The North American Currency — called the “Amero” in select circles — would effectively comingle the Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar and Mexican peso.

On its face, while difficult to imagine, it makes intuitive sense. The ability to combine Canadian natural resources, American ingenuity and cheap Mexican labor would allow North America to compete better on a global stage.

Experience has taught us, however, that perceived solutions introduced by policy makers and politicians don’t always have the desired effect. [more]

Bush Should Stay in Office…

…the Captain Should Always Go Down With the Ship.

Global Systemic Crisis Alert

The Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has issued a strongly-worded warning about the impending demise of the US economy next summer.

Excerpts:

Global Systemic Crisis Alert – Summer 2009:
The US government defaults on its debt.

Our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and fail to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.). Such a bankruptcy will provoke some very negative outcome for all USD-denominated asset holders. According to our team, the period that will then begin should be conducive to the setting up of a “new Dollar” to remedy the problem of default and of induced massive capital drain from the US. The process will result from the following five factors:

1) The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets.
 
2) Thanks to its recent “political baptism,” the Euro becomes a credible “safe haven” value and therefore provides a “crisis” alternative to the US dollar.
 
3) The US public debt is now swelling uncontrollably.
 
4) The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country’s defaulting.

5) “Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009?”–that is the only question.

Studying the case of Iceland can give an idea of the upcoming stages of the crisis. This country indeed provides a good illustration of what the US and the UK should be expecting.

It is now clear that this past month will remain in the history books of the whole planet as the month when the global systemic crisis started.

As a matter of fact, September 2008 is the month when the “financial detonator” of the global systemic crisis exploded. Therefore, this crisis is far more important, in terms of impact and outcome, than the 1929 crisis. However, the 1929 experience and all its dreadful outcome is still vivid enough in our collective memories to hope, if citizens are vigilant and leaders clear-sighted, that we will be spared from a “remake” leading to major world war(s).

The sudden shock that will result from the US defaulting in summer 2009 is partly due to this decoupling of decision-making processes of the world’s largest economies with regard to the US. It is predictable and can be dampened if global players start to anticipate it. LEAP/E2020 hopes that the September shock has “educated” the world’s political, economic and financial policy-makers and made them understand that it is easier to act by anticipation than in a panic. It would be a pity if Euroland, Asia and oil-producing countries, as well as US citizens of course, discover one morning of summer 2009 that, after a long-week-end or bank-holiday in the US, their US T-Bonds and Dollars are only worth 10 percent of their value because a “new Dollar” has just been imposed.

◊◊◊◊ Now: Gold @ $801.80, Silver @ $10.09, USDX @ 83.05 ◊◊◊◊
◊◊◊◊ Now: DJIA 9,265.43