More Ted Butler insights from his latest column (excerpt follows). Ted says (and I agree) Izzy’s Dec 2007 column triggered the run on Silver Eagles.
If there is one thing upon which I have agreed with my good friend and mentor, Izzy, it is the coming shortage of silver. This has been an issue on which we have agreed for more than 20 years. But it is only recently that I have come to appreciate his true take on what shortage will mean to the price of silver.
By way of review, the silver retail investment shortage emerged some six months ago, shortly after Izzy’s article extolling the advantage of buying US Silver Eagles. There is not the slightest doubt in my mind that his article jump started the huge demand for Silver Eagles and as a result the US Mint could not keep up with demand. They still can’t.
Already, the Mint has sold more Silver Eagles in the first seven and a half months of this year than it sold in any full year in the 22 year history of the Eagle program. I believe the demand for Silver Eagles subsequently generated sales for all retail silver investment products. Those not able to buy Eagles bought other forms that were available, until demand exceeded supply for other silver products.
Now many may doubt that a retired grandfather could write a single article that could launch a shortage of retail silver for the very first time in history, but I know better. I know that is exactly what happened. And the reason I know it is because I knew that was Izzy’s intent beforehand. Everything he wrote about the benefits of owning silver was the gospel truth. But, he also intended and set out to highlight just how tight silver supply had become by forcing the Mint into a position where they could not meet demand. He knew that the Mint couldn’t hide a shortage of Silver Eagles. There’s no way that someone sets out to accomplish such a specific objective and then achieves it by accident.
The reason I am recounting Izzy’s remarkable accomplishment is to give you a sense of the true meaning of his thoughts on the coming silver shortage. Even I raise my eyes when he offers his seemingly outrageous price projections, although I know better to dismiss anything he says. But there is something unique in his experience and background that gives him a perspective unlike most.
Izzy has experienced the kind of shortages of basic goods only witnessed during war. He was present during communist take over in his native Romania. He has related to me how people would pay any price for a loaf of bread, a chicken, even a tool. You and I can’t conceive of such shortages because we have never experienced them first hand.
Perhaps you can mentally transport yourself to imagine such shortages, where price becomes secondary to availability. If so, you may get a brief glimpse of Izzy’s vision and “crazy” price targets for silver in a time of true shortage. If this persistent and growing retail shortage of silver develops into a true full-blown wholesale and industrial shortage (as I believe we may already be in), we will not be able to judge what price is truly crazy. Those most likely to gauge price correctly in a shortage may only be those who have been there and done that.
Izzy doesn’t name a price target in recent columns. He says only,”Mr. Butler has a modest view on future prices, and my opinion is more extreme. I can see very high prices. If I tell you the price you will need a seatbelt, not to fall from your chair.”
I did find this from Izzy in another column from Feb 2008:
At some point, in 15 to 20 years, silver prices will be 5 times higher than gold prices. If my calculation is correct, a dollar invested in silver will do many times better than gold. In real estate value, I think 1,000 ounces of silver will buy a 3-bedroom apartment in Manhattan in Trump Towers.I am a different thinker, and some gold investors don’t like my opinion, but that is their problem.
In other words, Izzy’s saying silver could be at least $4,000 an ounce. At that rate a single 100 oz bar could pay off your house.
◊◊◊◊ Now: Gold @ $812.80, Silver @ $13.18, USDX @ 76.85 ◊◊◊◊
Filed under: Silver & Gold | Tagged: israel friedman, izzy, silver price | 28 Comments »