*** If you read nothing else on this site please read this.
*** Originally posted Oct 23, 2008. See the update at bottom.
To my friends and family and all unsophisticated investors (myself included): I have warned you before. I will do so one last time.
You have already seen the DOW’s top for the rest of your life and mine. It was on Oct.11, 2007 at 14,279. There is simply no mathematical way for the DOW to fully recover its previous highs when adjusted for inflation.
A relatively simple review of the inflation-adjusted DOW since 1920 will show that its moves almost exactly track the population demographic of 49-54 year olds in this country. The DOW deviates and underperforms the predicted trendline only in times of excessive gov’t spending. This happened in 1939-45 (WW II), 1967-75 (Vietnam War), early 1990’s (Gulf War) and, finally, 2001-now (Afghanistan & Iraq Wars). If we were not involved in wars right now the market would still be climbing. It would continue to climb until the population demographic peaks in 2012 and then begins a steep slide that continues unabated until 2025.
Since neither the democrats nor the republicans have any interest in listening to WE THE PEOPLE, we remain, and will continue to remain, at war for at least 3 more years. By then, it’ll be too late: the market’s doom is already “baked into the cake.”
I first showed this chart to you in December, 2005. Do you remember?
The DOW was around 10,880.
Gold was $507.
Silver was $8.40.
As of today you would have lost 21% in the DOW, but gained 45% in Gold and gained 16% in Silver.
As I have said since 2005, everything you own that’s tied to the stock market will devalue disasterously. Many will lose their retirement, their college savings, their ability to take care of their aging parents, and their livelihood. This is a Category 5+ financial hurricane and you’re just feeling the “outer bands” of rain and wind now. The storm surge is coming. The water’s already swirling at your feet.
IF YOU ARE STILL IN THE MARKET NOW, GET OUT, GET OUT, GET OUT!
The talking heads on Financial TV will never tell you to get out and stay out. They have advertisers to support. They are paid right now to “call a bottom” so everyone can jump back in. DO NOT BE SEDUCED INTO INACTION BY THEM.
If your 401K or IRA is invested in stocks or mutual funds YOU MUST CHANGE IT. You can switch to a gold/silver backed IRA/401K even though you may have to roll it over. You can probably withdraw for a 10% penalty and tax liability. (This is what I did, and I bought 1oz Silver American Eagles instead.)
THE WINDOW IS CLOSING F-A-S-T!
My estimate is that you have between 1 day and 37 days to make the move before the market tanks further and gold/silver double in price and/or become completely unavailable for the individual investor. If you can’t get gold or silver how on earth will you protect the wealth you have left?
Most sincerely and respectfully yours,
P.S. If you want to talk, call me on my home number or leave a comment below.
UPDATE: Jan 27, 2009.
3 months ago, on Oct. 23, 2008, I begged you to:
1) get gold at $733. It’s at $902 now. +23%
2) get silver at $9.72. It’s at $12.15 now. +25%
3) get out of the market at 8,519. It’s at 8,122 now. -5%
Please, if you can find silver and gold, get some.
Not for investment (although it’ll keep going up) but for protection.
If you already have gold and silver CONGRATS! And thank you for protecting yourself and your family.
If the only silver you own is the 1 oz bar I gave you*, wouldn’t you sleep better having some more?
If I haven’t given you a silver bar yet, let me know and I’ll send you one. I still have a few.
Update: I’m almost out of silver to give away. Check the link below to see if there’s any left.
FYI: please, this is just for those of you who haven’t yet started enjoying the protection and profit of silver. If you already have silver, would you consider sharing some of yours with one of your friends? It will help them more than just words.
*James, Alaric, Don, Kevin, Dave, Tiff, Seth, Mike the UPS guy (worked up a sweat schlepping in silver from Apmex), Eric, Loren, J-Boy, Kim, Brad, Rachel, Hoov, Maury the Schwann’s guy, Phil S., Sandy, Patty, Noel, Joel, Alice, Ellen, Allen, Tonya, Austin, Baby Bri, Morgan, Kyle, Trev, Joe, Tom, the A/C guy, John F., Vincent F., Margaret L, T. K., Brian M., Barry L.
UPDATE: Feb 20, 2009.
4 months ago, on Oct. 23, 2008, I begged you to:
1) get gold at $733. It’s at $990 now. +35%
2) get silver at $9.72. It’s at $14.51 now. +49%
3) get out of the market at 8,519. It’s at 7,342 now. -14%
UPDATE: Feb 23, 2009.
Jim Sinclair, hero & insider gold guy, has just said this:
“I may be the only one who knows why the world is ending in the equity markets and why no 1930 style rally with staying power can occur until certain procedural trading matters are worked out.
“Hell has broken lose. It will be more than two generations before this plague of greed is overcome. This is not a short-term aberration. It is a cataclysm brought about by the uncontrolled greed of an army of sociopaths.
“Gold is the only safe haven because unlike paper money it is impossible to create twice as much with the strike of a bailout plan pen.” [more]
– Bottom? NO Rally? YES
– UGLY: Inflation-Corrected Dow
– What You Weren’t Told on 9/11/2008
– Checking Off My “To Do” List
– Risky Stocks: How to Dump Them
– Dollar Death Warning
– How to Rate Your Bank’s Safety
– How Does Your Broker Rate?
◊◊◊◊ Now: Gold @ $733.70, Silver @ $9.72, USDX @ 85.56 ◊◊◊◊
◊◊◊◊ Now: DJIA 8,519.21