Think Tank’s 2009 Predictions

This is the latest update from the LEAP/E2020 think tank in Europe. I’ve monitored them for a year or so. Their predictive track record is solid. (My previous posts include: Global Systemic Crisis Alert and US Implosion By Summer 2009?.)

Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases:
1) trigger, (2007 mortgage/derivative crisis (ed.))
2) acceleration, (March 2008 Bear Stearns collapse (ed.))
3) impact and (Sept/Oct 2008 market/financial collapse (ed.))
4) decanting phases <– we are here now (ed.) 
This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now.

However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.

According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by:

A. Two major processes:
1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks

B. Two parallel sequences:
1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.

We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII.

Alas, at this stage, it is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard.

In the United States, as in Europe, China and Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary breakdown. In fact, the global system is simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be saved.

The fifth phase of the crisis will ignite this required process of reconstruction, but in a harsh manner: by means of a complete dislocation of the present system, with particularly tragic consequences in the case of several big global players.

According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to prevent this scenario from shaping up.

The April 2009 G20 Summit is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the sequence of UK and then US defaults begin. Failing which, they will lose their capacity to control events, including those in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase of geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”.

At the end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007.

It is high time for the general population to get ready to face very hard times during which whole segments of our societies will be modified, temporarily disappear or even permanently vanish.

For instance, the breakdown of the global monetary system we anticipated for summer 2009 will indeed entail the collapse of the US dollar (and all USD-denominated assets), but it will also induce, out of psychological contagion, a general loss of confidence in paper money altogether.

Last but not least, our team now estimates that the most monolithic, the most “imperialistic” political entities will suffer the most from this fifth phase of the crisis.

Some countries will indeed experience a strategic dislocation undermining their territorial integrity and their influence worldwide (end of the US Empire (ed.)). As a consequence, other countries will suddenly lose their protected situations and be thrust into regional chaos (widespread protests, unrest, civil war (ed.)). [more]

Your editor asks you: Got gold? Got silver?
Do you know what steps to take? I’ve been busy Checking Off My “To Do” List